Report Was In Error: Freshman Enrollment Did Not Decline 5% Last Fall [ Forbes ]

The flava:

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center today released the following statement from Executive Director Doug Shapiro about an error that affected the freshman enrollment data in its October preliminary fall enrollment report:

“The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center has identified a methodological error affecting its calculation of freshman enrollment in the preliminary enrollment report released in October 2024. That report, called the Stay Informed Report, is based on data provided by 50 percent of higher education institutions. The error in research methodology caused the mislabeling of certain students as dual-enrolled rather than as freshmen, and as a result, the number of freshmen was undercounted, and the number of dual-enrolled was overcounted. The error also affected the Special Analysis of 18-year-old Freshmen report released in November.”

The initially reported 5% drop in freshman enrollment was widely covered in news outlets and cited by numerous commentators over the past few months. . . .  

The article:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2025/01/13/report-was-in-error-freshman-enrollment-did-not-decline-5-last-fall/

John Aubrey Douglass: Leading a university is set to become even more difficult.

Over the past five years or so, there has been a significant increase in faculty votes of no confidence in their university and college presidents in the United States. These votes are an indicator of an evolving and increasingly challenging environment for university and college leadership, as well as evidence of a decline in shared governance – an environment that will likely become even more complex with Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

One mega trend: over some five or more decades, management authority has drifted towards university and college presidents and their administrators for several reasons. One is the growing size and role of student support services and other administrative functions, including the rising costs of intercollegiate sports and bureaucracies related to governmental reporting requirements, health and safety and supporting academic research.

In the 1960s, for example, faculty outnumbered administrators. Now, depending on the institution, administrators often outnumber faculty by five to one, or more. Today, a significant portion of a campus’s operations and funding is not directly related to its teaching, research and public service mission.

Another reason is the financial and enrolment pressures that, on average, have meant shrinking revenues relative to costs – even with rising tuition rates. With many institutions in the US facing declining enrolment, budgetary challenges often mean reducing the number of degree programmes, laying off faculty and administrators, and other actions that are sometimes accomplished despite resistance and concerns over shared governance. . . . 

--John Aubrey Douglass, senior research fellow for public policy and higher education at the Center for Studies in Higher Education, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley

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